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INVESTGRAF.COM I Quantitative Investments |
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Analyst case US$ x R$ x IBOV phenomenon
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The present analysis is to compare the trading movement of the Dollar against Brazilian Real, versus Brazil Stock Exchange behavior, using the basic financial tripod for investments, which in turn means: taxes, foreign currency and stocks. Assuming taxes as "constant", since low or none variations are felt in the short term, we can observe both top and bottom points of US$ x R$, exactly the opposite to the same points shown at Ibovespa (Ibov) index, which reflects the behavior of all major stocks in Brazil. |

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On the same way, at the Ibov chart bellow, we may observe the money moving exactly on the opposite way of currency, showing the solid opportunity for profits sum on both ways, offering benefits for investors using dollars regularly, while capable of local investments in Brazil. Translating into numbers the period from October 2002 to October 2007, we can count a currency valuation of Brazilian Real against US Dollar of aprox. 57%. On the same period, we see Ibovespa index valuation of aprox. 770%. The analysis proposal is to show that currency market movements and stock market movements happens with opposite directions, offering aditional prize for international investors. Although these movements are shown here in the long term, they are also observed in the short term, offering the same possible sum profits in fast trades, and are well present in the analysis and recommendations published daily at section Radar in InvestGraf. |

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Bellow you may find a short term example, showing Vale do Rio Doce profits of +25,4% in 28 days, while Real valuated +13,61% in the same period. The operation using both currency plus stock gives: +25,42% + 13,61% = + 39,03% em 28 dias. Recommendation was published at August 30th. 2007. |

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Bellow is the chart showing Real valuation against Dollar in the same period. |
